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Constitution Hill has been handed an official Flat ranking of 101 by the BHA handicapper following his second all-weather success at Kempton recently.
The eight-time Grade 1-winning hurdler has switched perfectly to the Flat this year in 2 1m4f novice races on the all-weather.
On his debut at Southwell in February, the nine-year-old scored by 9 and a half lengths under Oisin Murphy and followed up with a two-length success at Kempton last Wednesday with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
BHA handicapper Adam Barnes stated: "Constitution Hill has actually been rated 101, which is a high figure for a horse coming out of amateurs. Potentially, it might end up being quite a lenient figure for a horse like him with the ability we understand he's got from the dives.
"He was such an elite hurdler and retains a lot of that ability. It will be interesting to see how high he can go in the Flat sphere."
Trainer Nicky Henderson and owner Michael Buckley were eager for another run at Kempton to get a handicap mark for Constitution Hill as they contemplate future targets. The suggestion has actually been the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury on April 18 - likewise over a mile and a half - could be an appropriate next race.
After Kempton, Moore indicated that range fits, saying: "I think he's extremely comfy at 12 [furlongs]"
Major handicaps such as the Ebor at York in August, for which Constitution Hill is 12-1 favourite with sponsors Sky Bet, and the Melbourne Cup in November have been promoted as potential targets later.
Speaking on the BHA podcast, Barnes added: "Connections have actually discussed the John Porter as the next target, which is a pretty reputable Group 3. Generally speaking, you 'd desire to be running to around 110-plus to get actually included in a race like that.
"I saw William Haggas discuss that horses like Hamish or Al Aasy could go there and they're 117 and 115 horses, so that offers you an idea of the level Constitution Hill will require to be at to win a race like that. Whether he wins or not, they'll have lots of choices, be they in Group races or great handicaps, in the season ahead."
In his Racing Post steady trip in Tuesday's edition, Karl Burke stated he was likewise thinking about the John Porter for last year's French Group 2 winner Convergent.
The four-year-old colt, who has a main score of 116, was a three-and-a-half-length 3rd behind subsequent Derby winner Lambourn in the Chester Vase and was likewise a close second in the German Derby.
Hamish was ranked 117 when winning the Newbury contest two years back, while last year Divina Grace won it off 100, although she had a 4lb mares' allowance.
Following his Kempton success, William Hill made Constitution Hill an even-money chance to win a Group race on the Flat this year, which would include the John Porter, and 12-1 to land a Group 1. There is currently no market for the John Porter, entries for which close on April 13.
Constitution Hill has actually been designated the exact same 101 figure as handicappers such as Beylerbeyi, Stressfree and Paddy The Squire.
The six-year-old Beylerbeyi has that mark after winning in 2015's Cesarewitch, while the year-younger Stressfree has run consistently in Class 2 handicaps in between a mile and a quarter and a mile and six furlongs for the last two seasons.
Paddy The Squire, also aged 6, has perhaps a more progressive profile having had fewer starts. He won three of his 6 races in 2015, ending up off his season with a fifth (Stressfree in third) in Haydock's Old Borough Cup
Analysis: 101 all but books Ebor location for Constitution Hill
Constitution Hill's opening Flat mark of 101 is high for a first rating, if not uniquely so. You would routinely have horses ranked greater making their handicap launching in the Free Handicap, which was run for the last time in 2022.
More to the point, Constitution Hill has probably scheduled his ticket to the Ebor if connections go with that path. In the last two years, the floor on that race has actually been a BHA mark of 95 and 90, and in the last years just two times would 101 not have been enough.
As it stands, he needs to improve quite a bit to win that race. Constitution Hill's Racing Post Rating of 103 is just 2lb higher than his BHA mark. In 2025, running 2lb higher than your BHA figure would have won only 1.3 per cent of Class 2 handicaps.
Constitution Hill requires to run again on the Flat before he is eligible for any heritage handicap. That qualifying run promises to be in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury.
Finishing close up in that race could hurt his Ebor opportunities. The BHA standard on the John Porter would put even a third-placed finisher somewhere around the 110 mark in an average year. So even to end up where the market would likely anticipate at Newbury would ask for significant enhancement from Constitution Hill.
If that race does not go to plan, the alleviation would be his connections having four months to get him all set. He would also have a mark that, while stiff on the face of it, would be really tempting on the basis of his imperious hurdles form.
Keith Melrose, betting editor
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